Olympics 1500m Review: How to Shave 17 Seconds Off Your 5-Miler

If you didn’t watch the 1500m Final on Tuesday, I’ve intentionally left big spoilers out of the title of this post. Please watch it at the link below (it’ll only take 3-4 minutes. Use the link and click full screen to avoid a spoiler in the title). If you didn’t read my Olympic 1500m prediction, check it out beforehand or read this summary.

In my preview, I noted that the Olympic 1500m was a battle between two styles of racing: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR), the event favorite, who is a time trial specialist and will attempt to burn out his opponents before they can ‘outkick’ him in the final lap. Ingebrigtsen’s style is impressive because he leads races, which usually results in the leader himself burning out mentally as he tries to hit perfect lap times.

Josh Kerr of GB represents the second style. With slightly less fitness, Kerr will allow Ingebrigtsen to pace while Kerr himself sits behind the leader, then tries to outrun him in the final lap. The race itself is essentially a battle between Ingebrigtsen’s mental strength and Kerr’s physical strength.

I gave the three Americans no chance at gold and went out on a limb to say Hobbs Kessler would be the only American to medal. After you’ve watched, scroll down to see my analysis.

Now that you’ve watched the race, you see that I was dead wrong. Usually, I don’t enjoy that, but in this case, with two Americans on the podium and a thrilling spectacle, I’ve got no complaints.

Instead of just calling the race what it was and moving on, though, I’d like to review why what happened did, and how it can affect you.

The irony of Hocker’s win is that it couldn’t have happened without Ingebrigtsen. Everyone knew Ingebrigtsen would take the lead early and try to make it a fast race. He ran 3:26.76 in Monaco just 3 weeks ago, and Kerr’s fastest race converts to a 3:28.64 this season. Ingebrigtsen also knew Kerr had a superior kick, which he demonstrated last year, and so running Kerr out was his best chance of gold.

The problem with Ingebrigtsen’s strategy is the cognitive toll it takes is just too much. Hocker wins in 3:27.65, almost a full second behind Ingebrigtsen’s time at Monaco, which probably wasn’t even Ingebrigtsen’s peak. He’s got the fitness to win, but when I talked about the cognitive toll it takes to run without a pacer, this race is almost quantifiable proof of that.

Breaking down the Cost of Running without a Pacer

For Ingebrigtsen who finished in 3:28.24, 1.5 seconds (or, even more significantly .73% efficiency) is the quantifiable cost of leading. If we scale that to a 5-mile, let’s say you run a 39:00 when paced, but you run alone on game day. That’s a 17-second increase in your time, putting you at 39:17. This may not seem like a lot, but Ingebrigtsen is much better than most to only lose 1.5s. Common wisdom says a pacer is worth 1 second per lap at this level, which for Ingebrigtsen would be 1.9% cost of leading, a total of 44s on your 39-minute 5-miler. If I told you I could decrease your 5-miler by 17s with one simple trick, you wouldn’t turn up your nose.

If Ingebrigtsen doesn’t pace, however, there are a lot more players in the game. Niel Gourley, Brian Komen, and Timothy Cheruiyot were the only other runners not to set a Personal Best or Seasons Best in this race, and none of them had ever run under 3:28.5. Even if one of them had led, most of the runners would have had their kick available, and a lot more racers would have had a chance in the final 100m. As it was, Ingebrigtsen’s blistering pace completely broke off the Kenyans and left Kerr with only a little in the tank for the final 100m, taking out Hocker’s main threat.

That doesn’t reduce the feat Hocker displayed. If anything, I think Hocker changed the landscape of racing for the next few years. If someone can keep a 3:30/1500m pace for 1200 meters AND run a 3:19.5/1500m pace in the last 300 meters, it defeats the point of leading to burn out the kickers. It’s just too difficult to lead and try to keep up with the guys running that fast at the end.

What to watch for in LA 2028

Since I’ll be wrong anyway, I might as well get my preview early.

The obvious favorites for 2028 will be the podium in Paris. Kerr will be the only one over 30 in LA, and Ingebrigtsen and Hocker will be 27. Barring injuries (which only Hocker has been plagued with in the past), they’ll only get better. Some might move up to the 5k where the pace is a little less intense, but 27 is still a capable age for 1500/1600m runners.

My two runners to watch out for are Hobbs Kessler (USA) and Niels Laros (NED). Kessler, my American favorite at the podium, ran a great tactical race at a pace that was just out of reach for him. But he’s only 21 years old and just ran a 3:29.45 in an Olympic Final. His experience and accomplishments at this age only set him up to be leading the American charge in LA.

Laros, on the other hand, is only 19. He just set a National Record and Personal Best, running less than .1 second behind Kessler. To give you an idea of just how fast these two are, Cole Hocker’s 1600m Personal Best four years ago was 3:58.2 (converts to ~3:41.5 - 1500m). With an over 10-second faster personal best, it’s hard to imagine how far Laros and Kessler can go, especially since Kessler doubles in the 800m and shows impressive speed.