The Two Must-Watch Events of the Paris Olympics
And what they can teach you about being a better runner
The Paris Olympics kicked off its track and field events on Friday. It’s a ten-day meet that started with a 10km final and ends with the women’s Marathon on August 11th. There are 26 events, everything from the 100m Flat Sprint to the Decathlon, each with its many prelims and qualifiers. While I often espouse the value of racing, here’s one men’s and one women’s event that is well worth watching and why.
The Men’s 1500m
The Men’s 1500m is the glory event of Track and Field, and the Olympic 1500m is the pinnacle. No sight attracts the heavy hitters like the glow of those five rings.
Despite the 16-person field that will race for gold, it’s a square-off between two contenders. Jakob Ingebrigtsen is the 1500m Olympic defending champion. He’s come closer to breaking the 1600m record than any other man in the last 20 years, and he’s been dominant in the 1500m in the previous 5. Ingebrigtsen is also doubling in the 5km, an event he’s won gold in before. That’s important because Ingebrigtsen comes at the1500m from a side of ‘strength,’ which is how we define those longer distances; his strength is in running at a consistent, high speed.
His opponent is Josh Kerr of Great Britain. Kerr Is the lone contender to Jakob’s throne. He defeated Ingebrigtsen at the World Championship last year, and though the two have only raced once this year at the Nike-hosted Prefontaine Classic 10 weeks ago, Kerr took that race dominantly in the final lap. Kerr, though not doubling, usually runs the 800m as well, the opposite of Ingebrigtsen. This means he comes at the 1500m from the speed side, where his strength might not be in keeping a consistently high speed but he’s capable of running a faster last lap than most.
If you’re thinking the race is wrapped based on that Prefontaine Classic, think again. When it comes to racing at this level, there are two main aspects we look at.
Fitness is the first. It is defined by the runner’s pure ability to run with race conditions removed. Peak fitness is very grueling to maintain at the highest level (hence why it’s not called ‘plateau fitness’). Unlike Football, where every game matters, runners build their season’s training around a single race, which they plan to peak for. For Kerr and Ingebrigtsen, the Pre-Classic was just an introduction to the season; though it was nice to win, neither would have built their season around victory there. A much better measure would be a race close to the Olympics where placing didn’t matter, which is exactly what the Monaco Diamond League was. Monaco is sort of the unofficial yearly meet where runners go to get a PR or a time that could qualify them for bigger races; they don’t race to win, just to run fast. It’s an unspoken agreement to pace evenly, and this year, Ingebrigtsen ran 3:26.76 (3:42-1600m pace, definitely 600 ACFT Pace) there just three weeks before the Olympics. Kerr has not run a race since Pre, so it’s hard to tell what his fitness is, but Ingebrigtsen is looking very good.
The second aspect is racing ability. A runner can have great fitness, but what matters at the Olympics is who stands on the podium, not their time. While Ingebrigtsen is notoriously fit, Kerr has proven himself a better racer in their last two meetings where he let Ingebrigtsen lead up to the last lap, then outkicked him in the final lap.
Why would Ingebrigtsen let this happen? It’s easy to ask ourselves “If Jakob is faster, why doesn’t he just run faster for the whole race? Why give Kerr the chance to outkick him in the end?”
This would require Ingebrigtsen to lead the pack for all four laps of the race. Since other racers, especially Josh, would prefer to save that kick for the end, they’re not going to push the pace. The problem with leading for four laps is it’s very cognitively taxing. In the 10k, there’s this adage that the person who leads the most laps never wins. It’s not because they’re using more energy breaking the wind; it’s literally because running perfectly split laps at your top speed is too much to think about. By the time you get to that last lap, you’re completely mentally fried, and that’s if you did a perfect job. In most cases, it’s too hard to keep yourself at a perfect pace; if Ingebrigtsen is even a second slow on a lap, he’s giving an edge to the competitors.
The phenomenon is so well acknowledged that the Wanda Diamond League, the premier track circuit in the world, uses pacers to run ahead of runners for 2-3 laps so they can run faster. This is how Ingebrigtsen got his 3:27 in Monaco. The problem for him is that the Olympics doesn’t have a pacer, so he’ll either have to pace it himself or try to beat Kerr at his own game.
How does this apply to you?
Most of us don’t have pacers during our workouts. When you do a threshold run or 400s on the track, you’re usually out there alone unless you can find a friend who’s faster than you.
But at SFAS, Ranger or CA selection, you’ll be running in a pack of 100+ people. You won’t be the fastest, but you can use that to your advantage. If you find someone who’s running at your pace early, you can jump in behind them and run the whole time staring at their feet. If they start to slow down, you just slingshot to the next person in line and do the same thing; if they keep a good pace, you use them to pace the whole race rather than wasting your own cognitive energy trying to push yourself harder alone. I used this same method at Army Ten Miler in 2023 when I hung to the back of a guy going about 5:55 for 9 miles. All I had to do was maintain pace and check my watch every once and awhile to ensure he was true, but it allowed me to save my energy to make that last 1-mile push rather than getting cognitively burnt out.
The Americans
I do want to give a quick shoutout to the three Americans in the race: Cole Hocker, Jared Nuguse, and Hobbs Kessler. While I don’t think any of the Americans have a shot at gold, they’ll certainly be in medal contention for silver or bronze. Most people are going to point to Nuguse as the favorite given, he’s the US 1600m record holder, which he earned in 2023 in an amazing race with Ingebrigtsen at the Pre-Classic , but Nuguse looked like he was lacking fitness in Monaco and even his Round 1 run on Friday was not very encouraging. Hocker has looked in good form, winning the Olympic trials over Nuguse. He’s known for one of the best final 400s in the world, but something about Hocker also concerns me.
My favorite American is Hobbs Kessler. He’s the youngest, but Kessler has the best racing acumen of the three. He’s doubling in the 800m with a kick that’s competitive with Hocker and Kerr, but he puts himself in a better position to use it, as demonstrated by his calm finish in Round 1. While Nuguse’s fitness won’t be able to match Ingebrigtsen, and Hocker’s kick from a bad position won’t beat Kerr, Kessler could put them together in a slower race and come up with a medal.
Kerr and Ingebrigtsen already ran their first qualifying heats on Friday. They were in separate heats and ran almost identical times (circa 3:36) with both looking very comfortable and more importantly, healthy. They ran they’re semifinal on Sunday, with Ingebrigtsen, Kerr, and Hocker finishing top 3 in 3:33 to qualify for the finals. The finals are on Tuesday, 2:50 PM Eastern on Peacock. Watch to see if Ingebrigtsen risks going to the front early, or if Kerr can slow down the race enough to kick hard in the final 400m.
Women’s 400 Hurdles
One difference between the men’s and women’s events in track is the disparity in competition. On the men’s side, competition is much closer in every event, while women’s track has a much larger skill gap. The middle distances likely won’t produce any US medals, especially with Faith Kipyegon dominating the 1500m and 5km, and Sifan Hissan of The Netherlands in the 10k. The fitness difference is just so large it’s easy to see who will be competitive and who won’t.
But in sprinting, American women are arguably the global favorites. Sha’carri Richardson already took silver in the 100m, and both she and Gabby Thomas will be vying for Gold in the 200m.
But the 400m Hurdles will be the event that draws the most eyes. The race will likely come down to Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone of the US and Femke Bol of the Netherlands. McLaughlin-Levrone has looked unstoppable in her career so far with a Gold in Tokyo, and gold at Worlds in 2022. She was the world record holder with 50.68 until the Olympic Trials this year when she broke her record with 50.65.
Bol will be her only competitor, but it’ll be a close matchup. While McLaughlin-Levrone could easily break her WR in Paris, Bol became only the second woman to break 51s with a 50.95 only 12 days before the start of the Olympics. Bol also just upset the Americans on Friday when she anchored the 400m. Both races will undoubtedly give her great confidence and could imply she’s got more to give with rest leading into Paris.
What makes the race even more special is McLaughlin-Levrone’s lack of racing in all competitions. Although it frustrates me that she doesn’t race often, it’s hard to argue with the results. It also sets up a mystery around what she’s capable of; it would be very impressive to see Bol take .1 seconds off her PR in such a short time, but McLaughlin-Levrone will have 8 weeks since her last race, which is plenty of time to see some improvement since she likely wasn’t planning to peak for the Olympic Trials.
The women will race their seme-final on Tuesday, August 6th at 2:07 PM Eastern on Peacock. Their final will be Thursday, August 8th at 3:25 PM Eastern on Peacock.